As November 5th approaches, Minnesota politicians are making their final cases to voters against the backdrop of a hotly contested presidential race. Money and media attention alike are flowing into Minnesota as state-wide organizers make the final push for legislative control.
The elections comes after a legislative session that featured democratic control of the House, senate, and governorship. The session gave Democrats ample legislation to run on, while Republicans have equally as much to attack. Heading into election day, both parties see an opportunity: Republicans to regain control of one or both bodies and Democrats to establish their trifecta as a mainstay in MN politics.
The importance of the election is underscored by what is expected to be a consequential next legislative session that will see votes on important issues like statewide housing and environmental policy. Democratic state Senator Omar Fateh summed up his party's aspirations saying at a DFL campaign event, “It’s a lot more fun with a majority.” Conversely, Republicans are making their case for the virtues of a divided government.
The single most consequential statewide election is a special election in the Minnesota Senate District 45. The district, which surrounds Lake Minnetonka, is composed of more than 90% white voters yet hasn’t elected a Republican to the state Senate since 2000. The seat is currently unfilled after former Senator Kelly Morrison (DFL) stepped down to run for the congressional seat vacated by now-suspended presidential candidate Dean Phillips
The District 45 election will decide control of the MN Senate which is currently an even split with 33 Democrats and Republicans each. Democratic candidate Sen. Ann Johnson Stewart and Republican candidate Kathleen Fowke are actively campaigning in a race that has drawn state-wide media attention. Both candidates are emphasizing the role the election will play in the broader political landscape. Fowke, who is running as a moderate Republican, promises to “Bring balance back to Minnesota” in reference to the past divided governments.
Similar to national messaging, the two campaigns center around the economic issues that continue to resonate with voters. Both Johnson Stewart’s and Fowke’s campaigns list a healthy economy, and tax cuts, as top priorities. Johnson Stewart, a long-time UMN professor, has also emphasized workers’ rights and tax cuts for working families. Fowke has focused on the importance of shrinking government spending saying “Our wallets are feeling the squeeze.” Her husband reported more than $20 million in income in 2021.
MPR political analysts predicted in August that the race for District 45 Senate will break state-wide fundraising records by more than 2 million dollars. While legislature elections are becoming more high profile across the country the emphasis on District 45 is a result of a targeted Republican strategy. Given that the seat is the key to ending the Democrat’s trifecta, Republicans are dedicating a significant portion of their financial resources to Fowke’s campaign.
Though the special election continues to draw the attention of political strategists and junkies alike, the 134 MN House seats on the ballot will similarly decide the future of the legislature. The DFL, which seeks to hold on to its 4-seat majority, has isolated 14 seats that they expect to be close races. In the majority of those races, Democrats are significantly outspending Republicans who have employed a much more targeted spending strategy. Focusing on a few close races, Republicans hope to regain a majority they haven’t held since 2018.
The past legislative session was characterized by the passage of progressive legislation enabled by a Democratic trifecta. Many political organizers view this election cycle as a referendum on the DFL agenda and more broadly single-party control in a historically purple state. This November, as voters head to the polls, Minnesotans will deliver the final verdict.
Image: MN Refomer
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