A swing state: a state in which either party has a plausible chance of winning the electoral votes provided by that state.
Because of the way the U.S. electoral college functions, in which the candidate that wins the majority of voting districts in a certain state wins the electoral votes of that state, it is critical that candidates go after swing states. Rather than mainly campaigning where their lead is already strong or where they have no chance of winning, campaigns target the toss-up states. It’s the voters in these states that may ultimately decide which candidate wins the presidency.
The seven swing states in the 2024 race are Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Arizona, Nevada, and Georgia. These states and the 93 electoral votes between them will undoubtedly play the most decisive role in the 2024 race, which, in recent polling, has remained very tight.
Pennsylvania (PA) is the crown jewel of the swing states. Pennsylvania is highly coveted because in 10 out of the last 12 elections, the candidate that won PA also won the presidency. With 19 votes, Pennsylvania is tied with Illinois for the fifth most electoral votes of any state in the country, and the state has the most votes out of all 2024 swing states. Winning Wisconsin (10 electoral votes) and Michigan (15 electoral votes) along with Pennsylvania is a strategy for the Democrats to maintain the “blue wall” formed by these three states, which won Biden the election in 2020.
Georgia was integral to the 2020 election, as Democrats managed to win its 16 electoral votes for the first time since 1992. Georgia continues to be a crucial battleground state. To win it again, Democrats must focus on mobilizing voters in metro areas like Atlanta who were an integral part of Biden’s Georgia victory in 2020.
Arizona, like Georgia, has frequently voted Republican in the past, but voted Democrat in the 2020 election. Nevada has voted Democrat since 2008, but decreasing margins of victory mean that Republicans are aiming to swing it for 2024. North Carolina has voted Republican the last few elections, but in 2020 Democrats lost the state by only 1.3%, and recent polling shows that NC could go either way this election cycle.
To win these critical states campaigns must understand and target the hottest issues for voters. According to Emerson College Polling, in all swing states except Arizona, the top issue for voters is the economy. A lot of the main economic concerns include cost of housing, cost of living, and inflation. Other issues for voters include immigration, threats to democracy, healthcare, abortion, and education. Foreign policy is also a big issue in this election, with main concerns surrounding both the war in Ukraine and the bombardment of the Gaza Strip following the October 7 attack on Israel. The candidates have presented their stances on many of these issues, but voters have criticized both Harris and Trump for being vague in some of their stances and solutions.
We may have polls that show which candidate has a lead in each of these states, but the most important question remains. Who will win the swing states?
Illustration by The Atlantic. Source: Getty
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